The federal Conservatives will focus on flipping 45 opposition-held seats across the country in the next election in an effort to win a majority government, insiders say.
The strategy is based on how close the minority governing Conservatives came to winning those ridings in the 2008 election, certain wedge issues across the country, how many star candidates they can recruit and the history of the ridings.
To finally win that elusive majority government, the Conservatives must be successful in holding onto their 143 seats and winning just one-quarter of the 45 ridings they're targeting. But the Liberals say there's "zero per cent chance" of that happening.
Conservative strategist Tim Powers, vice-president of Summa Strategies, said it's not a secret that the Conservatives would target seats that they currently don't hold but said a good indicator of which seats they would specifically go after is the results of the last election campaign. He noted that close seats, in which the Conservatives came in second by a margin of five to 10 per cent, is obvious to focus on.
In 2008, the Conservatives came in second in 32 of the closest races across the country. Of those, 21 belong to the Liberals. The NDP holds eight of the ridings the Conservatives came second in, and the Bloc Québécois holdsthree.
Wedge issues are also playing a role in which ridings the Conservatives are focusing on. For example, the long-gun registry, which many Conservative voters support repealing, will most likely be used as an issue to sway voters to change their vote, as are other rural issues.
It's expected the Conservatives will target the ridings in which opposition MPs who originally voted to scrap the long-gun registry under a private member's bill then switched their vote to not allow the bill to continue, in effect killing any chance of scrapping the registry in this Parliament.
Pollster Nik Nanos recently told The Globe and Mail that the Tories are using wedge issues to build support.
"In this paradigm, the Conservatives narrowcast messages to clusters of ridings on a diversity of issues such as crime, the long-gun registry and social issues that align with their base and which divide the opposition," he said, in response to a poll at the time showing that the governing Conservatives could possibly form a majority without making a "significant breakthrough" in Quebec.
This strategy seems to be working, as some Liberal voters in rural areas feel like their party has nothing for them. "This basically speaks to a strategy where the Conservatives focus on rural and small town Canada along with being competitive among suburban voters," Mr. Nanos said.
Another "wedge" is focusing on the ethnic vote and regional issues.
Insiders say Citizenship and Immigration Minister Jason Kenney (Calgary Southeast, Alta.) is doing a good job with outreach to ethnic communities.
It's a good strategy because it's a direct attack on the Liberals, as the ethnic vote was traditionally theirs. It's why in suburbs of large cities such as Toronto and Vancouver with high immigrant populations, the Conservatives are making a point to run candidates from those ethnic communities to compete against incumbents.
Regional issues such as funding for an NHL arena in Quebec could also make or break seats in the second largest province.
One insider said although it's a controversial move, funding a Québec City hockey arena could be a "Hail Mary pass" that could help give the Conservatives the seats the party needs to form a majority.
"You go at this one at a time," one insider said, noting that it won't take long before the Conservatives gain the necessary seats. Canadians can also look for the Conservatives to make other funding or infrastructure announcements in the ridings they want to target.
The Conservatives are also trying to attract star candidates to run in some ridings. Although Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) recently appointed former CFL player Larry Smith to the Senate, Sen. Smith immediately announced that he will run for the party in the riding of Lac Saint Louis, a Montreal-area riding currently held by Liberal MP Francis Scarpeleggia. There is speculation that former New Brunswick premier Bernard Lord will also re-enter political life and run for the Conservatives in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, N.B., currently held by Liberal MP Brian Murphy.
The history of the riding is also a key factor in the Conservatives' targeting of winning seats. The Conservatives will work hard to regain former Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer's riding of Edmonton-Strathcona, Alta., which they lost to NDP MP Linda Duncan. In addition, since the party ousted Helena Guergis who won her Simcoe-Grey, Ont., riding as a Conservative and now sits as an Independent Conservative MP, they will focus on regaining the seat under a new candidate.
Another riding the Tories will likely work to regain is former MP Fabian Manning's Avalon, Nfld., riding, which they lost in 2008 to the Liberals, thanks in part to former premier Danny Williams' "Anything But Conservative" campaign.
"There's a whole island of seats there that belong to the Liberals and the New Democrats right now that under previous Conservative governments, Mr. Mulroney's particularly, were Conservative. I think there's a whole confluence of different forces that make people think with the right approaches and right outreaches and so forth, you might be able to turn some of those seats," Mr. Powers said, noting however, that whatever strategy the Conservatives use, it comes down to the actual campaign when the writ drops.
"Campaigns matter," he said. "What happens in the campaign, what happens in terms of local fights and local issues in different parts of the country, the tenor of the times as well, what's the mood of the people, there's all sorts of things that could precipitate that."
While Conservatives aren't talking specifically about possible majority governments, Mr. Powers said he's not ruling it out. "I think anything is possible," he said. "I think it's harder to win majorities but I certainly don't think it to be impossible."
Liberal MP Mark Holland (Ajax-Pickering, Ont.), whose riding is considered vulnerable and being targeted by the Conservatives, said, however, that any talk of a majority is "ridiculous."
"I think the bottom line is there's zero per cent chance on my end that the GTA is going to hand Stephen Harper all the keys and say see you in four years. This is a guy who's autocratic as a minority leader. He's given a blank cheque mandate, I can only imagine how he would be and people in the GTA know it," Mr. Holland told The Hill Times. "I think that that sense wasn't nearly as strong a number of years ago in the last election. But when I'm going around the doors now, you're hearing that very clearly. I think that if they ever get in an election campaign near majority territory, they'll be snapped back very quickly. I don't have any particular concern about that. I think the last election for a variety of reasons was a brutal election. It was the second worst election in the Liberal Party's history. But now I look across the GTA and I see lots of places we're picking up. I don't see any we're losing."
bvongdou@hilltimes.com
The Hill Times
The 45 ridings the Conservatives will target to win in the next election
The Conservatives will target these ridings for a variety of reasons. The majority of them are because the Conservatives lost the riding in the 2008 election by a margin of 10 per cent or less. Several of them are rural ridings in which opposition MPs voted against repealing the long-gun registry. The remaining ridings are ones that the Conservatives previously held and will try to regain or have a star candidate running for them.
| Riding | Currently Held By | First | Second | Third | Majority by votes | Majority by % |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | ||||||
| 1. Avalon | Liberal MP Scott Andrews | 45.28% | Cons 35.16% | NDP 17.38% | 3,324 | 10.1% |
| Prince Edward Island | ||||||
| 2. Malpeque | Liberal MP Wayne Easter* | 44.19% | Cons 39.28% | NDP 9.67% | 924 | 4.91% |
| Nova Scotia | ||||||
| 3. Sackville-Eastern Shore | NDP MP Peter Stoffer* | 61.42% | Cons. 20.74% | Liberal 12.69% | 16,081 | 40.68% |
| New Brunswick | ||||||
| 4. Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe | Liberal MP Brian Murphy* | 39.13% | Cons 35.83% | NDP 16.26% | 1,500 | 3.3% |
| Quebec | ||||||
| 5. Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou | BQ Yvon Lévesque* | 39.65% | Cons 30.37% | Liberal 18.42% | 2,573 | 9.28% |
| 6. Chicoutimi-Le Fjord | BQ MP Robert Bouchard* | 41.31% | Cons 34.91% | Liberal 13.45% | 3,057 | 6.4% |
| 7. Lac Saint Louis | Liberal MP Francis Scarpeleggia | 46.39% | Cons 23.51% | NDP 15.77% | 11,757 | 22.88% |
| 8. Louis-Hébert | BQ Pascal-Pierre Paillé | 36.23% | Cons 28.21% | Liberal 23.59% | 4,649 | 8.02% |
| 9. Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier | Independent MP Andre Arthur* | 33.49% | BQ 32.02% | Liberal 16.27% | 662 | 1.47% |
| Ontario | ||||||
| 10. Ajax-Pickering | Liberal MP Mark Holland* | 44.53% | Cons 37.95% | NDP 9.08% | 3,204 | 6.58% |
| 11. Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing | NDP MP Carole Hughes | 45.5% | Liberal 32.53% | Cons 17.65% | 4,347 | 12.97% |
| 12. Bramalea-Gore-Malton | Liberal MP Gurbax Mahli* | 45.06% | Cons 37.13% | NDP 12.03% | 3,919 | 7.93% |
| 13. Brampton West | Liberal MP Andrew Kania | 40.33% | Cons 39.9% | NDP 13.6% | 231 | 0.43% |
| 14. Brampton-Springdale | Liberal MP Ruby Dhalla* | 41.04% | Cons 39.33% | NDP 11.57% | 773 | 1.71% |
| 15. Don Valley West | Liberal MP Rob Oliphant | 44.36% | Cons 38.83% | NDP 10.19% | 2,771 | 5.53% |
| 16. Eglinton-Lawrence | Liberal MP Joseph Volpe* | 43.99% | Cons 39.25% | NDP 8.42% | 2,060 | 4.74% |
| 17. Guelph | Liberal MP Frank Valeriote | 32.22% | Cons 29.18% | Green 21.15% | 1,788 | 3.04% |
| 18. Kingston and the Islands | Liberal MP Peter Milliken* | 39.15% | Cons 32.54% | NDP 17.49% | 3,839 | 6.61% |
| 19. London North Centre | Liberal MP Glen Pearson* | 39.13 | Cons 32.97% | NDP 17.47% | 3,306 | 6.16% |
| 20. Mississauga South | Liberal MP Paul Szabo* | 44.22% | Cons 39.59% | NDP 8.85% | 2,152 | 4.63% |
| 21. Mississauga-Streetsville | Liberal MP Bonnie Crombie | 45.76% | Cons 35.8% | NDP 9.93% | 4,725 | 9.96% |
| 22. Nickel Belt | NDP MP Claude Gravelle | 46.54% | Liberal 26.3% | Cons 21.7% | 8,273 | 20.2% |
| 23. Nipissing-Timiskaming | Liberal MP Anthony Rota* | 44.56% | Cons. 32.34% | NDP 15.85% | 5,078 | 12.22% |
| 24. Sault Ste. Marie | NDP MP Tony Martin* | 40.43% | Cons 37.72% | Liberal 16.76% | 1,111 | 2.71% |
| 25. Simcoe-Grey | Ind. MP Helena Guergis* | 55.05% | Liberal 21.56% | NDP 11.2% | 18,798 | 33.49% |
| 26. Sudbury | NDP MP Glenn Thibeault | 35.15% | Liberal 30.2% | Cons 25.79% | 2,125 | 4.95% |
| 27. Thunder Bay-Rainy River | NDP MP John Rafferty | 40.32% | Liberal 32.27% | Cons 23.58% | 2,889 | 8.05% |
| 28. Thunder Bay-Superior North | NDP MP Bruce Hyer | 37.03% | Liberal 28.31% | Cons. 26.83% | 3,104 | 8.72% |
| 29. Timmins-James Bay | NDP MP Charlie Angus* | 56.54% | Liberal 22.17% | Cons 18.21% | 10,448 | 34.37% |
| 30. Welland | NDP MP Malcolm Allen | 32.91% | Cons 32.32% | Liberal 27.93% | 300 | 0.59% |
| 31. York Centre | Liberal MP Ken Dryden* | 43.46% | Cons 38% | NDP 12.11% | 2,032 | 5.46% |
| Manitoba | ||||||
| 32. Churchill | NDP Niki Ashton | 47.46% | Liberal 28.74% | Cons. 20.5% | 3,445 | 18.72% |
| 33. Elmwood-Transcona | NDP MP Jim Maloway | 45.77% | Cons 40.74% | Liberal 6.63% | 1,579 | 5.03% |
| 34. Winnipeg South Centre | Liberal MP Anita Neville* | 42.27% | Cons 36.26% | NDP 14.12% | 2,335 | 6.01% |
| Alberta | ||||||
| 35. Edmonton-Strathcona | NDP MP Linda Duncan | 42.58% | Cons 41.6% | Liberal 9.06% | 463 | 0.98% |
| British Columbia | ||||||
| 36. Burnaby-Douglas | NDP MP Bill Siksay* | 37.94% | Cons 36.25% | Liberal 19.41% | 798 | 1.69% |
| 37. Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca | Liberal MP Keith Martin* | 34.18% | Cons 34.07% | NDP 22.72% | 68 | 0.11% |
| 38. Nanaimo-Cowichan | NDP MP Jean Crowder* | 45.17% | Cons 37.59% | Green 9.57% | 4,610 | 7.58% |
| 39. New Westminster-Coquitlam | NDP MP Fin Donnelly** | 41.83% | Cons 38.84% | Liberal 11.3% | 1,488 | 2.99% |
| 40. Skeena-Bulkley Valley | NDP Nathan Cullen* | 49.84% | Cons. 36.36% | Liberal 5.55% | 4,658 | 13.48% |
| 41. Vancouver Centre | Liberal MP Hedy Fry* | 34.51% | Cons 25.1% | NDP 21.31% | 5,318 | 9.41% |
| 42. Vancouver Quadra | Liberal MP Joyce Murray* | 45.59% | Cons 36.92% | Green 8.83% | 4,832 | 8.67% |
| 43. Vancouver South | Liberal MP Ujjal Dosanjh* | 38.49% | Cons 38.44% | NDP 17.62% | 20 | 0.05% |
| Northwest Territory | ||||||
| 44. Western Arctic | NDP MP Dennis Bevington* | 41.45% | Cons 37.63% | Liberal 13.58% | 523 | 3.82% |
| Yukon | ||||||
| 45. Yukon | Liberal MP Larry Bagnell* | 45.8% | Cons 32.66% | Green 12.83% | 1,927 | 13.14% |
—Statistics based on 2008 general election results
*Incumbent MP during 2008 general election
Source: The Hill Times
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