The NDP and Bloc Québécois have lined up with the Liberals in staunch opposition to the government's controversial new Human Smuggling refugee bill and—should Prime Minister Stephen Harper decide to declare the bill a confidence measure—the standoff could lead to a snap election call soon after Parliament's six-week Christmas recess.
The Commons is expected to adjourn on Dec. 15, following the day's routine House votes that day, and will resume on Jan. 31.
Several Liberal MPs told The Hill Times their caucus will vote against the bill even if Mr. Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) declares its defeat means the government has lost confidence of the House and an election is required. The move, if it occurred soon after the Commons resumes sitting and all three opposition parties maintain their positions, would allow Mr. Harper the opportunity to hold an election essentially on the timing he might want, prior to a bad-news budget in March.
With the latest Nanos Research poll showing the Conservatives at the significant point of 38-per-cent support from decided voters, and the Liberals at 31 per cent, Mr. Harper may feel the wind in his sails and decide that the image of lax refugee rules in Canada, stirred up in part by the government itself when the Thai vessel Sun Sea landed on Canada's West Coast with 491 Tamil migrants aboard, might be a good springboard for the beginning of a federal campaign.
Pollster Nik Nanos said his latest poll, conducted Dec. 2, shows improvement for the Conservatives in ways other than the party's overall lead, a factor which may also spur Mr. Harper into an election sooner rather than later.
"What we've noticed in our last wave of research is that the Conservative margin in the Prairies is still significant, but it is lower, and they are up in British Columbia and Ontario. This means this particular thirty-eight-per-cent is more efficient than in the past."
Public Safety Minister Vic Toews (Provencher, Man.) and other Cabinet ministers and MPs suggested before the Sun Sea's arrival there were indications terrorists were aboard, fleeing Sri Lanka after the government defeat Tamil separatist forces in a brutal crackdown. It was later reported the migrants had paid up to $50,000 each to take a chance entering Canada through the gruelling voyage across the Pacific Ocean.
The Liberal party has already indicated it will vote against the legislation, which the government has emphasized primarily as an anti-human-smuggling measure. But several MPs took it a step further, telling The Hill Times the caucus will oppose the bill regardless of whether Mr. Harper makes it a confidence measure.
"It's always well within their right to go ahead and try to focus and divide people on the basis of spreading fear and negativity, but that's not nation building," said Liberal MP Joe Volpe (Eglinton-Lawrence, Ont.). "They've been at it for five years and the best thing they can come up with is to criminalize everybody who wants to come to the country. Immigration isn't actually a security issue, it's a growth issue."
Mr. Volpe dismissed suggestions the government might benefit from the images it has stirred up of a refugee system that is too generous, with a backlog of claimants, many appealing refugee board determinations that they don't qualify as refugees and should have entered Canada through normal immigration channels. Immigration lawyers argue many tribunal decisions are unfair and irrational and legitimate refugee claimants have been denied entry.
"You can galvanize opinion around something like that, but you can't build a country around that," Mr. Volpe said.
Bloc Québécois House Leader Pierre Paquette (Joliette, Que.) said the bill creates two classes of refugees, some who have quick access to reviews and the ability to apply for permanent residency, and others who don't. The government would be able to detain certain refugees for up to a year before they qualify for legal review of their detention. A parliamentary backgrounder on the bill raises the possibility it would violate legal guarantees under Canada's Charter of Rights
Mr. Paquette said his party will also vote against the bill even if Mr. Harper decides to force an election over it. "You know the Bloc Quebecois, if we are against it, we vote against it," he told The Hill Times. "It's the fault of the government if we have an election. It's a question of principle."
NDP House Leader Libby Davies (Vancouver East, B.C.) said her party will also oppose the legislation, regardless of how the government frames the vote. "We're voting against the bill," she said. "We've been very clear with our position, so whatever they decide to do, it's the government's prerogative to declare something confidence other than something that isn't automatically confidence [the budget or money bills and the Throne Speech], so they would really be playing games."
Ms. Davies predicted the government will back down and withdraw the bill, or decline to bring it forward for a vote in principle and committee hearings, if the three opposition parties continue to oppose it.
tnaumetz@hilltimes.com
The Hill Times
Source: The Hill Times
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