The Bloc Québécois and the Harper government are rumoured to be engaged in a sensitive Pas de Deux that will likely see Québec City win federal funding for a new arena to host the NHL—with possible other victories for the Bloc—while the government wins unexpected support in crucial House votes.
The scenario could throw all current election speculation out the window and, combined with other events and timetables for next year, possibly set the stage for Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) not only surviving through another budget next spring, but possibly for another year at least.
"There's a rumour that's gaining traction, the Bloc have struck a deal with Stephen Harper," NDP MP Pat Martin (Winnipeg Centre, Man.) told The Hill Times. "They'll be their dancing partner until 2012."
Despite the contrast between a relationship involving the two sides and Prime Minister Harper's strident attacks against the Bloc Québécois only a year ago, prominent pollsters agree it could be possible. And, if an election is delayed that far into the future, the recent resignation of former environment minister Jim Prentice and reports Defence Minister Peter MacKay (Central Nova, N.S.) may also be looking elsewhere could hold wider meaning than previously thought.
The Bloc's support in a vote to send the government's second bill implementing this year's budget into committee study—after the party described the plan as "nothing for Quebec, as though Quebec did not exist" when it was presented to Parliament—went by with little notice on Nov. 4.
The vote was a sharp departure from the condemnation Mr. Paillé and Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe (Laurier-Sainte Marie, Que.) showered on the budget when Finance Minister Jim Flaherty (Whitby-Oshawa, Ont.) tabled it in the House of Commons last March, despite notice in October from Bloc Quebecois finance critic Pascal-Pierre Paillé (Louis-Hébert, Que.) that his party supported some of the bill's elements, enough to approve all of it in principle and send it to committee.
Because of Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's (Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Ont.) position that his party opposes the budget, yet does not want to defeat the government over it and force an election, Bill C-47 would have likely gone to the Commons Finance Committee for further scrutiny without support from Bloc MPs. But the votes in the Commons are nonetheless valuable political coin in Quebec for a federal governing party.
At the same time, as unlikely as it might seem after the controversy that raged when Conservative MPs first backed the idea three months ago, a Conservative source said the government is set to approve funding for an NHL-level arena in Quebec, billed as a multi-role sport stadium Québec City says it needs for a 2022 Winter Olympics bid. Edmonton, meanwhile, would get federal money for a new stadium sought by the city's NHL Oilers. "There's going to be some kind of linkage between Edmonton and Québec City," the source said.
Opposition MPs noticed in the week preceding the vote on C-47, following passage earlier this year of the government's first bill implementing part of the budget, that government responses to Bloc Québécois inquiries about the arena were less strident than they had been. During the same period, Bloc MPs also probed the government about other areas that involve federal cash payments or funding, including financial compensation for Quebec's version of harmonized federal and provincial sales taxes.
"Every time they ask for something, they get it," Mr. Martin said, referring to Quebec's successful campaign against the "fiscal imbalance" created by disproportionate federal and provincial taxation abilities. "If they can show results like that, then the next time they go to the polls they say 'the Bloc isn't irrelevant, the Bloc does deliver results.'"
If a federal election is forestalled, it could also benefit Mr. Duceppe following recent developments in the Parti Québécois, where Mr. Duceppe has been promoted internally and publicly as a stronger choice to lead the separatist provincial party than current chief Pauline Marois. Mr. Duceppe played down the division before he left earlier this month for an unusual series of official visits to Spain and Scotland, each with their own histories of sovereignty movements, and France.
Bloc press attaché Isabelle Monette told The Hill Times she had heard nothing about any formal or informal arrangement with the Harper government, and a government official said "I've not heard anything to that effect," adding "it sounds like a tall tale to me."
Liberal MP Scott Brison (Kings-Hants, N.S.) the party's finance critic, did not respond to a request for an interview on the topic, extended through his aide.
Two leading political opinion pollsters in Ottawa, Frank Graves and Nik Nanos, however, conceded such an arrangement might make sense for both Mr. Duceppe and Prime Minister Harper, particularly since Conservative insiders, as well as MPs from other parties, are now saying an election next spring might not be as sure a bet as pundits believed only a few weeks ago. One Conservative told The Hill Times if that window passes, a federal election may be unlikely until 2012 because several provincial elections, including one in Ontario, are to take place next fall.
Mr. Graves was initially reluctant to accept the possibility an election in the spring of next year after the government's first post-recession, deficit-fighting budget may not be on. But even his own most recent poll last week showed the Liberals and Conservatives both mired at 30 per cent support from decided voters.
"I would be shocked if there's not an election in the spring, I would be shocked," he said. However, when told of the Bloc Québécois rumours, he said "that's an interesting point of view, yes, the reason you wouldn't bring them down is because the Bloc says, 'Let's get a few goodies out of these guys while we can.' It makes sense, basically it helps Duceppe if he wants to go into Quebec politics, it probably in the long run nurtures the sovereigntist cause by having an Ottawa government that's quite jarringly different from what Quebecers think and feel on many issues."
Mr. Nanos said "from the beginning" he has believed "the Bloc is a natural dance partner for any minority government, although governments would shy away from forming a coalition with the Bloc. To strategically align with the Bloc to survive under controlled circumstances, I think, is just a natural, practical part of being in a minority government. For the prime minister, he just has to tread very carefully, that the cooperation doesn't seem to cosy."
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The Hill Times
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