Defence Minister Peter MacKay likely floated the idea he may leave government for one of Bay Street's biggest law firms because he and other prominent Conservatives realize they have slim chances of forming a stable government after the next election, says pollster Frank Graves.
It would take a drastic change in voter opinion about both the Liberal and Conservative parties.
Other Parliament Hill insiders agree speculation about Mr. MacKay's possible departure, former environment minister Jim Prentice's resignation, a trial balloon from B.C. that touted Heritage Minister James Moore (Port Moody-Port Coquitlam, B.C.) as a possible contender for the leadership of the provincial Liberal party, and a trickle of Cabinet aides who have left the government are signals that all is not well under Prime Minister Stephen Harper's (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) leadership.
"With these numbers, there is no way they can deliver a secure minority Parliament," Mr. Graves told The Hill Times. "I don't believe there is any way, if the Conservatives have less than 103 seats, that the NDP and the Liberals are going to let them form a government. There would be an immediate confidence measure within that slender a margin, within six weeks."
The turbulence at the top of the Conservative Party that began two weeks ago with Mr. Prentice's sudden resignation ignited rounds of hallway and table talk of what was behind it all, and also an unexpected and previously unthinkable phenomenon—Conservative insiders agreeing to discuss prospective candidates who might one day vie to replace Prime Minister Harper at the party helm.
"The real story is they don't think Harper is going to be able to deliver a stable government," Mr. Graves said in an interview about the law firm possibilities involving Mr. MacKay, Mr. Prentice's departure and the West Coast discussion about Mr. Moore, one of the brightest young stars in Prime Minister Harper's Cabinet.
Veteran Conservative commentator Tim Powers agreed to discuss potential successors while at the same time insisting "nobody's angling for it, because Harper does have the strong support of the party, without a doubt."
"I think the Conservative Party is blessed with a good degree of talent, both in Cabinet and outside," he told The Hill Times. "Whether it's Peter MacKay, or Jason Kenney, or Rona Ambrose, or any number of ministers, Jim Flaherty, Tony Clement, James Moore, or people on the back bench, James Rajotte. There's talent there just within the party group, I'm sure there would be people on the outside who would be interested in it.
"But I think the important point to make about this is the people doing the talking about the Conservative leadership race are not Conservatives," Mr. Powers said. "The prime minister holds the loyalty and support of the party quite firmly and strongly and I don't think you'll hear any Conservatives talk about leadership races or speculation. That's more a fancy for those outside the organization, because the one political party that is in pretty good shape is the one that's governing."
But, as Mr. Graves points out, his polls and a recent poll by the respected Harris-Decima polling firm have both recently published surveys that suggest the Conservatives and Liberals are tied at roughly 30 per cent support from decided voters, nearly seven percentage points below the vote the Conservatives received in the 2008 federal election.
One Conservative assistant said Mr. Prentice's departure and the rumours about Mr. MacKay—keeping in mind that the Gowlings law firm reportedly courting him refused to comment and that a law firm would be the last institution in the world that would leak such a confidential matter—are a reflection of discontent among certain circles within the party over Prime Minister Harper's leadership.
And had it not been for the internal Liberal strife caused by party Leader Michael Ignatieff's (Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Ont.) decision to agree with the government that no Parliamentary debate is required for the new deployment of 1,000 Canadian troops in Afghanistan, the Conservative developments might have attracted more attention.
Mr. Powers insisted that a more interesting subject for Conservative watchers would be the person Prime Minister Harper will, likely soon, either appoint to Cabinet or shuffle within Cabinet to replace the environment vacancy left by Mr. Prentice.
"Do you take Ted Menzies, James Rajotte, well-loved across the party, chair of the Finance Committee, smart? Lots of people think he should be in Cabinet. Do you promote Ablonczy and bring in Rajotte? There's going to be some moves in the next little while that will be interesting as an assessment of talent and future planning for how the organizations works," said Mr. Powers.
Despite Mr. MacKay's likely ambition to succeed Prime Minister Harper, possibly reflected in part by his recent antics, another Conservative insider said that is unlikely.
"I'm not sure Peter would be able to do it," the insider said, noting Mr. MacKay's base is in Nova Scotia. "It would take a lot of money."
tnaumetz@hilltimes.com
The Hill Times
Source: The Hill Times
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