A top Conservative commentator says Prime Minister Stephen Harper's iron-willed decision to "cut the cancer out" by exposing Rahim Jaffer's undeclared lobbying over the past year and throwing Helena Guergis overboard is intended to end the brewing scandal before it spreads.
But political observers and opposition MPs believe Prime Minister Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) is also trying to ensure the unusually lurid details of the furor involving the husband and wife team does not erode crucial financial and electoral backing for the federal Conservative party from perhaps its single most important base—the conservative Christian right.
And, even though Conservatives believe Mr. Harper's decision to draw attention of the media, MPs and the federal lobbying commissioner with a trail of emails showing Mr. Jaffer's lobbying efforts after his 2008 election defeat will put the government in a transparent light, the emails themselves suggest the strategy could backfire and lead to new questions about backroom government pressure on public servants.
"There's no question these documents will come back to haunt the conservatives," said NDP MP Pat Martin (Winnipeg Centre, Man.).
A bundle of emails and letters the government distributed to selected journalists after sending it off to Lobbying Commissioner Karen Shepherd last week included more than 40 emails involving odd schemes Mr. Jaffer and his Green Power partner Patrick Glémaud were promoting through Conservative MP Brian Jean (Fort McMurray-Athabasca, Alta.), a friend of Mr. Jaffer's who had been designated as the government gatekeeper for the $1-billion Green Infrastructure Fund, and Sébastien Togneri, then director of parliamentary affairs to public works minister Christian Paradis (Mégantic-L'Érable, Que.).
One of the email chains involved a biofuel proposal that would process trees destroyed by the pine beetles. Sites for the proposed plants included locations in British Columbia and Calgary, but also Guelph, Ont., Waterloo, Ont., and Simcoe County, inside Ms. Guergis's riding. "Not really Pine Beetle territory," a public servant or aide to Mr. Jean noted in the margin. "How do I advise Mr. Glémaud?"
But a series of other emails could be even more hazardous to Mr. Harper and his government. They centre on a proposal Mr. Jaffer and Mr. Glémaud were pushing at Public Works and Government Services Canada that would have installed solar panels on the roofs of federal office buildings in Ontario. Edward Morofsky, a buildings control specialist in the department, rejected the scheme in an internal response.
"I'll skip over the competitive issue as I'm sure it will be treated by others," he wrote before pointing out glaring technical problems, including the fact that new roofs would be required "or we will be left with a seriously compromised roof service" and the proposal implied the department would have to repair and maintain the unites. "This is just another reason for competitive bidding..." Mr. Morosky wrote.
As the department sat on the request, Mr. Togneri emailed an adviser to the deputy minister saying: "The sector has had this for weeks, what's the holdup?" Mr. Togneri then instructed the bureaucrat to "set the meetings" to discuss the proposal from Mr. Jaffer and Mr. Glémaud on Sept. 30, 2009 and "please invite me."
Opposition MPs point out that the offices of at least eight cabinet ministers should have been aware of the lobbying, particularly since many of the emails were exchanged around the time last September when the Ontario Provincial Police created a flurry of media attention by disclosing Mr. Jaffer had been charged with cocaine possession and drunk driving. The opposition says cabinet ministers involved, including Transport Minister John Baird (Ottawa West-Nepean, Ont.), Environment Minister Jim Prentice (Calgary Centre North, Alta.), and Mr. Paradis, now the minister of natural resources, should have intervened or reported Mr. Jaffer to Ms. Shepherd.
Despite questions that arise over the time it took for Mr. Harper to discover the lobbying, likely a contravention of his own Public Accountability Act because Mr. Jaffer and Mr. Glémaud did not register as lobbyists or report their meetings, Conservative party commentator Tim Powers said the government's decision to release details as the Commons Government Operations Committee probes the affair was designed to cut short the controversy.
"I think the reason is if you have material to share, share it all at once so you're not subject to an ongoing saga of drippings and droppings that comes when you don't put all the information out at once," Mr. Powers told The Hill Times. "The best way to deal with that problem is to do what he [Mr. Harper] has done, you put the cancer out, which is what he's done, in terms of remedies, in terms of people not currently in the caucus, and give them all the information they want."
Mr. Powers rejected the view that Mr. Harper's attempt to nip the scandal in the bud by disclosing the information, combined with his abrupt expulsion of Ms. Guergis from Cabinet and the Conservative caucus two weeks ago, along with what seemed a precipitous decision to call in the Mounties, was also intended to buff up the government's image for its core base.
There is little question seamy allegations that are part of the affair—cocaine use, partying with escorts and "busty hookers," links to organized crime and the Hell's Angels—would not be attractive to tens of thousands of supporters represented by organizations such as Focus on the Family and the Canadian Family Action Coalition, both of which have close links to the Conservative party and its members.
"I think the Prime Minister has reasonably well-inoculated himself from any wounding from the base, because of his swift action as it relates to Guergis," said Mr. Powers. "He won't lose sleep at night by being criticized, as some are now doing to him, for acting precipitously."
Others, however, say a perfect storm of government actions that have taken place over the past few weeks, including a sudden announcement Canada would not fund abortions through its support for an international maternal health program Mr. Harper is proposing, attacks against the Liberals over the federal gun registry and the figurative lynching of Mr. Jaffer and Ms. Guergis indicate that is exactly what the government is doing.
Considering Mr. Harper has also indicated he is ready to fight a snap election over secret government documents about possible prisoner torture in Afghanistan, it makes sense the prime minister may be trying to batten down hatches on the right wing, critics say.
"It would make eminently good sense that they're trying to change the channel on this as quickly as possible," said Mr. Martin. "The image, the optics, offend their traditional base and they need that base desperately if we're inching, if we're on the precipice of an election."
A political scientist and University of Ottawa law professor agrees Mr. Harper is attempting to keep secure the party's substantial base among Christian conservatives, and his forceful measures in the controversy sparked by Mr. Jaffer and Ms. Guergis are part of the effort.
"For financing, it's huge," professor Errol Mendes told The Hill Times. "It's constant, it's not just this, it's the gun registry. They can't hold on to power if they lose their fundraising base or the support. It accounts for 30 per cent of their support."
The executive director of one of the largest Christian organizations that pins its political goals with the Conservatives admitted the Raffer/Guergis affair may be damaging the party's image.
"That's the one thing that I've probably heard more than anything," said Brian Rushfeldt, executive director of the Canadian Family Action Coalition.
"Even in private discussions, certainly I know it's always coming up," he told The Hill Times. "I hear it whenever I'm out and around in various circles I hear it coming up and then talking about it, but as far as knowing whether from a partisan standpoint it's made any impact I wouldn't even venture a guess."
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The Hill Times
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