There are 80 vulnerable ridings and although elections are won riding by riding, experts say the national campaign is more important to turning these close ridings than the local one is.
"I very much feel that way. Local constituency factors, and there's been work by Munroe Eagles from the University of Buffalo suggesting that local constituency factors count for no more than five per cent and some ridings are within that margin, so it's not to say it's not a factor anywhere, but it's just not a huge factor and it will only affect a relatively modest number of seats I think," said Wilfrid Laurier University political science professor Barry Kay.
He told The Hill Times that any ridings won with less than about six or seven per cent of the vote is an unsafe riding.
Any ridings won with 10 per cent or less can be considered vulnerable ridings, as they range from losing the vote by 2,500 votes at a nine per cent margin, for example, where Conservative Jean-Maurice won in Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou, Que., or by 3,800 votes at a 6.6 per cent margin won by Liberal Peter Milliken in Kingston and the Islands, Ont., in the 2008 election.
Every vote matters in these types of ridings, but University of Toronto professor Nelson Wiseman said depending on how the national leaders do, it could also affect the local outcome.
"The problem with saying, 'Oh no, it's all about the individual ridings,' is that you assume that you're going to hold onto all of your ridings. That's a good assumption where the Conservatives are sitting right now, but if they drop to 36 per cent, well, it's not a good assumption. You're going to lose some of those seats," he said.
When asked what can help a party turn the seat, Prof. Wiseman said: "Put in outside resources into the riding. You've got to get the local media there onside early. The community newspapers. If there's a big ethnic vote, of course they're pivotal. Your